ATERRIZAJE EN EL SEGUNDO SEMESTRE

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El Banco Central continuó recortando la tasa de interés de las Lebacs bajando a 34,25% anual el interés implícito de la letra de 35 días (1% anual respecto de la última licitación). Los títulos públicos no demoraron su respuesta: primero arrancaron los que pagan interés “badlar”, luego los ajustables por el índice CER y finalmente los de dólar. El último caso es notorio ya que los bonos se mantuvieron firmes y en alza en su precio en moneda local a pesar de la sistemática caída de la cotización de la divisa norteamericana. El dólar estadounidense llegó a cotizar por debajo de US$ 13,95 en el mercado mayorista. Nos tenemos que remontar a fines de enero para encontrar  esa cotización, y en comparación con el tipo de cambio “blue” nos tenemos que remontar a julio del año pasado.

La reducción en los rendimientos implícitos de los títulos públicos es notoria. Los soberanos más largos como el DICA o el PARY acortaron casi 0,50% su rendimiento anual en una semana, pasando de alrededor del 7,5% de TIR a poco más del 7%. Las causas son múltiples, pero responden básicamente a la percepción de una mejoría sensible en los próximos meses para Argentina. El mercado “compró” la idea de un blanqueo exitoso y una baja de la inflación de acuerdo a las proyecciones del gobierno. La apuesta sería a que Argentina se ubique en términos de rendimiento de manera similar a sus comparables de la región: alrededor del 6% de TIR para los bonos de “duration” similar al DICA y PARA. Recuérdese que la caída en la TIR (la tasa de rendimiento implícito) de un bono es consecuencia de una suba de su cotización. Por otra parte, cuanto más “largo” es el bono, más fuerte reacciona el precio ante un cambio en su TIR.

Los bonos provinciales también subieron de precio, entre ellos el BPLD de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Se trata del bono más largo de la curva provincial, con una estructura similar al PARA pero con una duration más parecida a la del DICA. El título bajó su rendimiento de 8,50% a 8,20% en una semana de manera análoga a los soberanos, con lo cual mantiene su interesante diferencial respecto a éstos en la apuesta por una mayor reducción del riesgo país. También tiene la ventaja de ser un título bajo legislación Nueva York, adquirible por fondos externos que tengan la limitación de la legislación aplicable.

Para el corto plazo, los inversores continúan en la dicotomía tasa vs. dólar. Con una tasa de Lebac declinante, los títulos públicos ajustables por CER pasaron a ser una alternativa buscada, en especial los cortos NF18 y PR13. Otra alternativa que se buscó fue la compra de instrumentos “dólar-linked” simultáneamente con la venta de contratos a futuro de dólar, fijando una tasa en pesos. Aquellos que buscaron dolarizar carteras aprovecharon las Letes que licita semanalmente el Tesoro Nacional, a 90 y 180 días con una tasa anual de 3,45% y 3,75% respectivamente. La ventaja que presenta la licitación es que el inversor puede suscribir en pesos al tipo de cambio “A” 3.500 que publica el Banco Central, que resulta del promedio operado en el mercado mayorista de cambios. Vale decir que se suscribe en pesos al tipo de cambio mayorista, mientras que si se compraran dólares se estaría pagando la punta vendedora minorista.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 2.6.2016

 

2.857 comentarios

  1. Ruben

    Asi es Daniel,…..Pampa esta muy barata,….!!! esto ya lo dije y lo repito,…………
    este papel va a ser como su controlante Petr. cuando salio en enero del 2014…de 2 se fue a 10 en un tramite,….y hoy miren donde esta,….en 35 pesos,…subio 1700 % en apenas 2 años y cuatro meses…!!! miren lo que subio en tan poco tiempo,….!!! Pampa con la compra de Pesa una vez fusionada pasara lo mismo va a ir a valores inimaginables,…..no ha de extrañar que se vaya arriba de 200 pesitos en el 2018,…!!!!!

  2. Ruben

    Historico,….Pampa todavia no tuvo suba historica,…..esta proxima a tenerla OK,…ya vas a ver a que valor se va en los proximos meses,…..!!!!!!! saludos,….

  3. Tengo una posición muy importante en PAMPA comprada hace unos quince días Ruben.
    Para los que me siguen hace ya un par de meses venía fomentando como acciones a tener en cuenta tanto a CRESUD, como IRSA.
    Y para RUBEN y daniel: no es necesario vender PESA para comprar PAMPA. A 9,62 que te van a pagar PESA conviene caucionar la posición en PESA más la compra de PAMPA y asumir el costo financiero. Por lo menos yo procedí de esa forma. El único riesgo es que se demore mucho el pago de PESA. Además al mantener la posición puedo ver si, llegado el momento, opto por la venta de Pesa o por el canje con Pampa.

  4. ELIO

    Compro EDN desde el 2011-2012 históricamente su precio era mayor a su controlante PAMP y la compraba a $0,86 si no me falla la memoria, o sea que algo aumentaron en los últimos 4 años.

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