ATENCION A LOS BONOS LARGOS

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Tal como se esperaba, los bancos y entidades financieras decidieron seguir colocando todos sus vencimientos en la licitación de Letras del Banco Central. Esto permitió a la autoridad monetaria absorber más que los vencimientos de deuda y retirar del mercado cerca de $ 13.000 millones de pesos. La falta de opciones líquidas y rentables de esos montos para las instituciones financieras permitió al Central absorber con poco esfuerzo, bajando incluso la tasa de interés de cada tramo. Esta situación se repetirá probablemente en los próximos dos meses, y continuará hasta que los bancos encuentren alternativas más atractivas –en rigor, volver a dar préstamos- para colocar sus fondos.

Sin embargo la baja de las tasas de interés reaviva en el dólar el sabor de una suba que quedó corta tras la liberación del cepo cambiario. La divisa norteamericana se mantuvo en términos generales por debajo de lo que venía cotizando el dólar bolsa, que más allá de las comisiones y alguna que otra presión oficial informal no tenía restricción alguna. El dólar del mercado mayorista de cambios operó en torno a los $ 14,15, y la suba respecto de la semana pasada alimentó levemente la demanda de activos en dólares. El mercado en general aún no está seguro de abandonar la tasa de interés en pesos por activos dolarizados.

Esto ofrece oportunidades atractivas para inversores de mediano plazo que busquen buenos rendimientos en dólares. Los títulos que pagan en pesos al cambio oficial ofrecen un plus más que interesante respecto de los que pagan en dólar duro. El bono de Neuquén al 2018 (NDG21) rinde alrededor del 13% anual en dólar-link y es de las provincias con mejor perfil crediticio, mientras que el bono de Chubut al 2019 (PUO19) es un poco más largo, ofrece un rendimiento algo mayor y actualmente tiene mejor liquidez en el mercado. Para inversores medios el NDG21 luce más que atractivo, mientras que inversiones grandes pueden buscar el bono de Chubut que opera con mayor frecuencia.

Por el lado de los títulos en dólares, tanto el PARA como el DICA ofrecen un rendimiento alrededor del 7,6% anual, lo que convierte al primero en una opción más atractiva para aquellos que apuestan a una reducción del interés soberano (ligado a un eventual acuerdo con los fondos buitre). Sin embargo los inversores también tienen la posibilidad de ir a un bono largo de la Provincia de Buenos Aires como el BPLD para realizar una apuesta similar. Este título tiene un rendimiento casi 1,5% superior pero tiene la contrapartida de una menor liquidez. El BPLD también se beneficiaría notablemente por transitividad si la Nación logra reducir su costo de endeudamiento y además tiene buenas condiciones legales de emisión. Es un título bajo legislación Nueva York, no alcanzado por la problemática de los fondos buitre, y que cuenta con cláusula “Bonex” que fuerza a la provincia a hacerse de dólares bajo cualquier alternativa legal –incluyendo operatorias de “contado con liquidación”- si llegara a tener vedado el acceso a dólares del mercado de cambios local.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 7.2.2016

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