APUNTANDO A LA TASA DE INTERES

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Para sorpresa de muchos, el gobierno tuvo asombroso éxito en la cruzada contra el dólar. La divisa norteamericana informal tuvo un fuerte descenso en el último semestre mientras que las cotizaciones cambiarias bursátiles se han mantenido prácticamente neutras. Hoy en día, ninguno de los grandes inversores quiere mantener abultada exposición cambiaria por temor a que baje el dólar. Sin embargo, la batalla tuvo que dejar heridos en el camino. El gobierno debió necesariamente recomponer reservas y absorber la altísima emisión monetaria que financia el abultado déficit fiscal. El plan originalmente lo llevó adelante Juan Carlos Fábrega y fue continuado al pie de la letra por Alejandro Vanoli. Pero el gobierno es consciente que el férreo control de importaciones y el encarecimiento financiero tuvieron un duro impacto en el crecimiento económico: el PBI cayó durante el 2014 y apenas se mantiene neutro en el año corriente.

El Banco Central comenzó lentamente a reducir la tasa de colocación de las letras (deuda) que emite para absorber pesos de los bancos comerciales. La semana pasada ya había reducido un 0,5% de las tasas que solía ofrecer y esta semana redujo la tasa a 150 y 210 días. Para los ahorristas implicará un lento descenso –si continúa la tendencia- de las tasas de interés de los depósitos a plazo fijo y también de los flamantes Bonac que licita el gobierno cada 15 días (adquiribles en la bolsa).

Para el mercado bursátil se trata de un sendero peligroso. El mundo financiero es consciente que el Banco Central acumuló un nivel de deuda tal que necesariamente el gobierno entrante deberá devaluar para licuarla. La autoridad monetaria no puede vivir eternamente refinanciando su stock de deuda y menos aún si reduce el interés de la deuda que quiere emitir. Haciéndolo, corre el riesgo que no logre colocar su deuda y deba volcar importantes sumas de pesos al sistema financiero, que rápidamente buscarían dolarizarse.

Por el momento no hay ninguna situación alarmante, en parte debido a las elecciones que mantienen en suspenso cualquier tipo de expectativa. Pero los inversores ya no están tan dispuestos a invertir a tasa fija a 9 meses de plazo y podría agravarse a medida que se acerca el cambio de mandato presidencial. Es por eso que los títulos vinculados al dólar oficial mantienen rendimientos bajos, porque se espera una devaluación aún a pesar que actualmente el dólar oficial prácticamente no se mueva o lo haga a tasas muy por debajo de la inflación. Los inversores apuntan al tramo más corto de la curva, pero para los pequeños ahorristas bonos como el NDG21 de la provincia de Neuquén o el BDC18 de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires son una alternativa con mejor rendimiento. Los títulos como el Bonar X y el Bonar 2024 son estrictamente en dólares con mayor rendimiento, una opción para el que no quiere arriesgarse a que el nuevo gobierno mantenga el cepo cambiario y siga controlando la presión sobre el dólar controlando el acceso al mismo.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 10.5.2015

 

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