APROVECHAR OPORTUNIDADES EN UN MERCADO PELEADO -la nota de la semana-

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El mercado bursátil sigue atento a “la previa” política y a los increíbles “saltos de garrocha”, que no debería sorprender a quienes conocen la  idiosincrasia de nuestros políticos.

De allí, que no se esperan tendencias y que el desarrollo del mercado se mantendrá errático hasta que se  vislumbren definiciones políticas. No obstante, se aprovechan las “ compras de oportunidad”. Llamó la atención la poca profesionalidad en el caso “COMERCIAL DEL PLATA”. Se prestó mas atención a la “picardía” de quien difundió apreciaciones falsas, que a las sensatas expresiones de su Presidente en la Bolsa de Comercio en las que ilustró sobre su situación  actual y sus posibilidades. No se percataron que  manifestó la intención de aplicar sus esfuerzos a la adquisición de nuevas empresas con responsabilidad en su gestión. La depuración de su mercado accionario y la baja cotización la sitúa en posición expectante para un nuevo ciclo ascendente. Los movimientos especulativos en el vencimiento de opciones ayudan a captar precios atractivos.

Hay que saber esperar.- Como hay que esperar la incidencia que tendrán en su resultado la reciente resolución de autorizar aumento de tarifas y subvención a los transportadoras de gas (TGN y TGS), así como a las distribuidoras ( CAMUZZI, CUYANA, GAS BAN, METROGAS).

Llama la atención la firme cotización (aunque con poco volumen) de CAMUZZI, que no es respaldada por sus Balances. Entre las de mayor mercado sorprende la firmeza y volumen de PESA, quien puede volver al “panel líder”, en caso de mantener la fluidez de las operaciones. Se justifica con la transparencia que tendrán sus negocios de aquí en adelante y también por los mejores precios que internamente se mantienen para petróleo y combustibles. Se intensifica la inversión en Neuquén y siempre se especula con su venta. La estabilización del precio internacional del petróleo con tendencia a alguna mejora, arrima mas tranquilidad. Parecería que una cotización cercana a los $8 constituirá una buena base para su acumulación. Igual consideración le correspondería a SIDERAR alrededor de $7. De los bancos,  el más atractivo es PATAGONIA que a $21 ofrece resistencia y adeuda un dividendo de 146% en efectivo.

En el panel general cabría aprovechar ventas puntuales. Este es el caso de Juan Minetti, con creciente volumen negociado.

Héctor Tavares

3.844 comentarios

  1. Jorge

    Hector que pasa con Carboclor que en estos 2 dias tiene un volumen importante(Casi 2 palitos y medio)??? viene alguna noticia importante??

  2. Maximo Nestor

    La decada ganada tambien se festeja en la bolsa con los cumpas de Mirgor. Cristina y Mauricio hasta la victoria, siempre.

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  3. chori trader

    Una semana mas signada por la H: resulta fácil advertir que el TIC TAC del mercado lo marco exclusivamente la letra muda.

    El HUMOR que despertaron en un principio los rumores de alianza entre M.M y S.M fueron puro HUMO, que a la postre HUNDIERON al merval. HONESTIDAD es lo que falta!!

    Me preguntan … y ahora Chori?, Como sigue esto? Yo les contesto con fe, esperanza y con muuuucha paciencia. Como sostengo desde varias semanas atras la baja sigue su marcha inexorable, le queda poca rosca a la H, por eso a mirar con atención las acciones GGAL, COME, EDN,TGN, TRANS. Cada vez falta menos.
    Prohibido olvidar al Dolar Ahorro.

    • Germán

      Yo a COME no la veo bajando más, con el poco volumen que tuvo esta semana, los lanzadores de siempre, la hubieran podido bajar al precio que hubieran querido.
      TGN es otra que no veo bajando.
      EDN sí te creo que está cara, además depende de lo que pase con el próximo gobierno.
      Y GGAL depende en gran medida de la demanda que tenga el ADR en USA, pero no la veo a valores del año pasado.

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  4. Sebastian Paradelo

    Es verdad lo q dice Tavares, COME esta regalada, aprvechen ahora porque no se va a ver mas en estos precios.

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  5. Tavares
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    No conozco que pasa en Carbo. Parece un pase de manos pero no se. Lo de Camuzzi: dependerá del resultado electoral. No creo que pierdas, pero podés perder por costo de oportunidad respecto a otras especies. Saludos.

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  6. Francisco

    Maestro, pensas que es momento para entrar en COME?
    Por otra parte, que opinas de TS y PETR?

    Aguardo tus comentarios, desde ya gracias,
    Saludos

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  7. javier

    Recomendaría diversificar en los papeles nombrados o apostar a dos o tres, las nombradas del panel general?

    • platense

      Hector, disculpeme pero yo tambien disiento con el comentario de CAMUZZI, pienso que es la empresa mas subvaluada del sector, la que mas crecio en distribucion esta decada (por ende la que mas deberia valer de las cotizantes), con la mejor solidez y posicion de deuda en mi vision y con un buen management. Creo que es de los papeles locales mas subvaluados.

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  8. martin

    ¿Podrian explicar como se hace para salir de posicion grande en papeles como CAMUZZI? Lo mejor son los cupones.

  9. Martin

    Nota que deja pensando, momento dificil para el inversor. Hoy bajaron ALUA -1,1 y ERAR -2.4….el mercado dolariza carteras mediante bonos en dolares porque descuenta una devaluacion y 2 empresas del panel lider que exportan y se verian beneficiadas con eso que el mercado descuenta, bajan……Para completar baja MOLI -2.2 otra que se beneficiaria. PESA y COME para arriba, PESA me gusta. COME si bien no estoy empapado en ese papel creo que su principal apuesta es CGC relacionada con el petroleo. Sube COME y nada TS……El mercado solo se mueve con algun rumor politico que poco cambia la historia real. Nadie quiere arriesgar, a seguir mirando para entrar nuevamente

    • Platense

      De acuerdo martin, la liquidez es un problema frecuente del papel. Se puede tardar en salir (en ciertos momentos tiene volumen aceptable, pero es de vez en cuando). Esto no quita que por valor sea uno de los mejores papeles a nivel local, prestando atencion al tema volumen.

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  10. Martin

    Si queres salir rapido, busca un papel con liquidez. La mejor empresa del merval, a mi gusto, es TS. Ahi tenes liquidez, tenes buenos fundamentales y la tenes haciendo piso hace 6 meses. Pocas veces visto TS asi, obviamente influyo el petroleo entre otras cuestiones. El dia que dispare para arriba agarrate y con esa accion siempre se gano, salvo alguno que haya entrado muy mal. TS es hoy realmente una oportunidad de compra y ademas de todo lo bueno que te nombre sirve para el contado con liquidacion. Que mas se le puede pedir? Una ganga para aprovechar, aunque que yo voy a esperar un poquito mas para volver ahi, no mucho

  11. Javier Aguirre

    No se que decir con el tema de petroleo, yo por las dudas no compro nada relacionado con el , estoy esperando porque cuando Iran empiece nuevamente a exportarlo, (despues de Arabia Saudita es el mayor productor del mundo), el stok de petroleo estara muy alto, a no ser un conflicto , no lo veo aumentando, no asi todo lo relacionado con el gas natural que la demanda aumentaria un 30% en los proximos 5 años en el mundo, buscaria empresas relacionadas con el : TGS, PESA, PAMP(PETR, tendria el 30% produccion de gas en el pais), Come por CGC, pero para mi la que tiene la vaca atada es TGS, tiene que pasar todo el transporte por el, yo compro todos los meses y lo guardo para una inversion a alrgo plazo(aparte esta subvaluada y con futuro)

  12. Tavares
    Author

    Me gusta que sigan opinando. Los fundamentos de cada papel a veces no se correlacionan con el día a día. El ideal del fundamento es agregarle “timming” sino se puede perder independientemente de las bondades del papel.

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  13. Platense

    Gracias Hector por dar este espacio de Debate, Ts me deja mucha duda a este nivel del barril, por la caida de ventas que puede tener. Siempre fue una empresa de una enorme calidad. Me gustan mas PBR x relacion precio valor o la misma ypf. La segunda mas aun si el petroleo sube.
    TGS y CGP son de lo mejor de su sector en estos momentos para mi.
    Es cierto que el que quiere inversiones de corto plazo para entrar y salir, tiene q mirar mas cosas. Los fundamentos seguramente no sean lo principal.

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  14. Tavares
    Author

    Javier: Pata es un papel que me gusta mucho. Lamentablemente está muy manejado por un operador que pone el precio que se le canta. Lo veo atrasado pero por lo que le comento, solo debe ser tenida en cuenta en plazos que excedan la coyuntura. Abrazo.

  15. JAVIER AGUIRRE

    Si , Sr Tavares me meti en la pagina de La Anonima, del Frigorifico y tambien le da muy buenos margenes y ratios, es una muy buena empresa que me parece que empiezo a comprar, pero disculpe mi inocencia no entiendo el movimiento de este SR, para saber nomas ¿cual es el fin, ya que la $$tiene un costo y ¿donde gana?, en definitiva pregunto ¿el mercado a la larga reconocerá su valor?

    Nos vemos , Javier

  16. JUAN DEL REY ALZAGA

    Estimada Sabrina, al retirarse los grande players del mercado, y terminarse la liqui del FCI, lo que ganaron con las primas de lotes xcentualmente, lo sobrecompensaron con una baja de $ 3,60 $ 3,00 del orden del 20%, sin lugar a dudas, la seguridad de estas manos que ya mencionamos, viene de la mano de que no hay combustible y por lo tanto no hay pelea contra un grupo que la llevo para abajo. Transitoriamente o no, se quedaron con una parte del pastel importante, ahora la subiran para volver a repetir la historia, el tema sera QUIENES LE CREEN ?? …. el ADR por fuentes que llegaron a colegas, se pospuso para el 2do trim. 2016 y unicamente el prospecto de C.G.C…. que no es poco, pero tampoco mucho, por el resto de activos, tiene ya un valor si comparamos con lo que bajaron el resto de los activos, un gusto encontrarte.

    • Sabrina

      Hola Juan del Rey! yo no soy muy auspiciosa para los próximos dos meses tampoco. Fijáte que ya comenzaron a repartir lotes a una tasa altísima para el vencimiento de agosto. Lo que no quita, claro, que transitoriamente la hagan subir para seguir vendiendo lotes. Pienso que la opex para los toros será octubre. Obviamente puede fallar. Sigo pensando que el potencial de COME es tremendo y la ubica como una de las acciones más ganadoras del año.
      Es un gusto también para mí, intercambiar apreciaciones contigo.
      Sdos.
      Sabri.

  17. Tavares
    Author

    Estimado Javier: Lo que vale a la larga sube. Incluso la subirá este mismo agente como lo hizo siempre. Lamentablemente esta plaza, la maneja él. Salvo que un día existan inversores tratando de tomar posiciones fuertemente en el papel, cosa que por ahora no se ve.

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