ANTE EL PELIGRO DE LA ACELERACION DE VENCIMIENTOS

 

 

 

 

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Como es de público conocimiento, Argentina no pudo concretar el pago a los tenedores de bonos Discount bajo ley extranjera dentro del período de gracia que se establece para hacerlo. Si bien las autoridades argentinas argumentan haber pagado, lo cierto es que el prospecto del canje 2005 dice que el pago se considera completo una vez que el dinero esté en poder de los bonistas. El del canje 2010, sin embargo, es distinto y establece que el pago se completa cuando llega a las agencias que deben distribuir el pago a los tenedores. Desafortunadamente, el canje 2005 es mucho más grande que el del 2010.

Más allá de la discusión teórica sobre si Argentina está o no en default, lo importante para el gobierno es mantener el canje de deuda normalmente. De más está decir que para lograr destrabar los pagos necesitará haber arribado a un acuerdo con los fondos buitre y esto solo sería posible, desde la óptica del gobierno, una vez pasado el 2014 cuando se haga evidente que la cláusula RUFO del canje no aplica por su expiración. Por lo tanto, si el conflicto no es resuelto por privados como se especuló durante la semana, el corazón de la cuestión estará en que no haya un pedido de aceleración de vencimientos de las series Discount, Par y Global 2017 antes de que se puedan destrabar los pagos en el 2015.

La aceleración de vencimientos implica que la deuda que mantiene el gobierno es debida y reclamable inmediatamente por los tenedores de los títulos de deuda, independientemente del plazo original estipulado. Eso implicaría que se desarmaría el canje. Para pedir la aceleración de una serie es necesario juntar el 25% de los tenedores (en términos de monto) de títulos de esa serie. El ministro Kicillof adelantó que, llegado ese punto, se apelaría judicialmente la decisión por considerar que el gobierno cumplió con los requisitos. Sin embargo, es probable que se interprete acelerado no solamente por lo que dice el prospecto 2005, sino también porque el mismo juez Griesa consideró que el pago argentino era ilegal. Por lo tanto para la justicia norteamericana, que es donde se apelarían los reclamos por títulos con esa jurisdicción, tampoco se estaría cumpliendo el prospecto 2010.

No obstante, Argentina cuenta no sólo con la opción de que no se aceleren vencimientos sino también con la posibilidad de desacelerar cualquier serie que se acelere si luego soluciona el conflicto y el 50% de los tenedores (en monto) aprueba desacelerar la serie. Como la mayoría de los tenedores de deuda prefieren cobrar normalmente sus títulos antes que embarcarse en litigios judiciales interminables -sumado al hecho que una vez sorteado el default sus bonos se valorizarían- es de esperar que en el 2015 se solucione el conflicto.

Por eso, a pesar de los vaivenes que pueda tener el mercado, aprovechar los rendimientos actuales de los bonos sin preocuparse por la valuación es más que tentador. Para mayor tranquilidad, se pueden aprovechar los bonos de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, que tienen legislación extranjera pero no están envueltos directamente en el conflicto.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 3.8.2014

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