AL COMPAS DE LAS ENCUESTAS

 

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La mejoría en las encuestas del precandidato presidencial Mauricio Macri venía dando lugar a un “rally alcista” de los activos argentinos eternamente subvaluados. En lo referido a bonos, el mercado espera principalmente 4 cambios: liberación del mercado cambiario, solución del conflicto con los fondos buitre, buena medición de la inflación y tasas de interés reales positivas (es decir, por encima de la inflación). En ese orden, los cambios beneficiarían a los bonos “dollar-linked”, en dólares, ajustables por CER y a los que pagan interés Badlar, respectivamente.

Durante esta semana fue el candidato Daniel Scioli quien mejoró en las encuestas o al menos así lo percibió el mercado tras reportes de varias consultoras. En rigor, los inversores no se sienten tan incómodos con el gobernador bonaerense, aunque la noticia fue suficiente para cortar el idilio y permitir una toma de ganancia tras las últimas subas. Dicho en otras palabras, se espera que también Scioli continúe con los cambios señalados pero quizás más lentamente que en el caso de Macri.

De todos los bonos mencionados, los que más se han revalorizado han sido los títulos ajustables por CER. Como es habitual, los bonos largos son los que más varían el precio: tanto el Cuasipar como el Par en pesos han subido más de un 30% en lo que va de marzo y habían tenido subas importantes también durante febrero. Los títulos largos de la Ciudad “dollar-linked” se estancaron en marzo, pero en enero y febrero habían subido entre 8% y 9% cada mes. Los títulos largos en dólares del canje, DICA y PARA, tuvieron un promedio de suba del 6% mensual.

En un escenario presidenciable donde se cumplan los 4 puntos mencionados, los bonos aún mantienen terreno por ganar y con valorizaciones considerables. La lista la encabezan los largos ajustables por CER como los largos en dólares, aunque éstos proveen una cobertura cambiaria al pagar en moneda extranjera. La pregunta clave de los inversores son los riesgos asumidos en cada tipo de bono y la probabilidad que su evento positivo no se dé: no se libere el mercado cambiario, no se logre o quiera solucionar el conflicto de la deuda, persista subestimada la inflación y las tasas de interés se mantengan deprimidas como en los últimos 10 años (exceptuando el 2014).

Si bien el escenario de solución del conflicto con los fondos buitre es el más dificultoso -ya que es el más costoso fiscalmente hablando-, también por ello los bonos largos en dólares han sido los que menos han reducido su rendimiento. Además los recientes fallos del juez Griesa pueden impactar en el precio del DICA y del PARA, si bien poco hacen al cobro de ellos para los inversores locales, con lo cual se tornan atractivos para aquellos que quieran apostar a un mejor panorama financiero para el 2016. Aquellos más conservadores aún pueden obtener rendimientos superiores al 8% anual en dólares con bonos como el Bonar X. Para menor volatilidad, los títulos que pagan tasa de interés Badlar ofrecen un rendimiento similar a la inflación esperada.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 29.3.2015

 

 

3.082 comentarios

  1. Andres Paradelo

    Ademas de los bonos, creo q hay un par de acciones con un PER excelente, como BRIO y BPAT q para mi van a comenzar a subir mucho.

  2. Mat

    Igual me preocupa el tema Griesa, en medio del rally los tomadores ignoraban todo lo referido a la cuestión Holdouts. Con corrección puede ser distinto, aparte están los ejercicios. No sé si es una buena combinación, está la cuestión encuestas. Si en estos días aparecen sondeos más favorables a Macri en detrimento de Scioli, sería una bocanada de oxígeno invaluable.

  3. josetangari

    Hector te contesto acá una cosa de ferrum

    El año pasado ferrum dio un dividendo muy grande en acciones y este año ganó 85 millones en 6 meses, cuando en todo el ejercicio anterior ganó 122.

  4. htavares

    Si José: Pero hay otras empresas que cotizan con este Grupo, que es muy bueno. Lo único que uno espera es un dividendo en EFECTIVO ACEPTABLE. Abrazo.

  5. josetangari

    Para mi es mejor el dividendo en acciones, si sostenes el dividendo cobrado y llegan buenos balances creo q la ganancia es mucho mayor a un dividendo en efectivo

  6. pablo

    Don Héctor, cómo la ve a MIRG? hace rato que tengo unos papeles pero parece que no quiere arrancar. Abrazo!

  7. javier aguirre

    SR Héctor Tavares ¿El precio de TS va a ir proporcionalmente al precio del petróleo o con expectativa de cambio de gobierno puede aumentar algo?

    Nos Vemos, gracias

  8. htavares

    Mirgor está pesada por el contexto económico actual. (falta de dólares). No veo grandes cambios. Tenaris bajó mucho pero sus balances y expectativas no son para champagna. Abrazos

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