Ahora se mira al índice CER

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El instituto de estadísticas nacionales de la administración de Mauricio Macri publicó el índice de precios para junio, 3,10%, cuando el promedio de estimaciones privadas estimaba un 2,80%. La noticia sorprendió a los operadores del mercado, que esperaba una mayor morigeración del índice de incremento de precios. Aunque también produjo cierto alivio, ya que el organismo, al publicar un número peor que el esperado, despejó las dudas sobre la fiabilidad de sus guarismos. Quizás con conocimiento previo sobre la publicación, el Banco Central decidió mantener las tasas de interés de las Lebacs que licita los martes, rompiendo la costumbre de recortar 0,5% de tasa por semana.

Lo cierto es que con Lebacs a 35 días con rendimientos del 30,5%, el 3,10% de inflación es una tasa más que atractiva (equivalente a un 37,2% de tasa nominal anual). Instrumentos como el Bogar 2018 (NF18), el más corto de los bonos que ajustan por índice CER, mostraron rendimientos del -3% anual más ajuste por inflación. Los instrumentos más cortos son los más afectados por los vaivenes de corto plazo de la inflación, ya que en bonos como el DICP y PARP, al tener más de 15 años de vida remanente, el efecto de los primeros 2 meses es proporcionalmente mucho menor.

Una opción atractiva que seguramente se ponga a disposición de los inversores minoristas en el corto plazo serán los plazos fijos en Unidades de Vivienda (UVI’s). Se trata de la “moneda” que lanzó el Banco Central y que ajusta directamente por el coeficiente de estabilización de referencia (CER). Éste, a su vez, se calcula con el índice de precios que publica el INDEC. Hasta el 15/08/2016, el UVI avanzará a una tasa del 3,1% mensual, superior a la de Lebac de 35 días (2,9%). Los plazos fijos bajo esta modalidad tendrán un plazo mínimo de 180 días, con lo cual los próximos 5 meses serían una incógnita para el inversor. Sin embargo, siempre tomando como alternativa las Lebacs de 35 días, el comportamiento del Banco Central del primer semestre muestra una tasa de licitación siempre inferior o en línea con la inflación, aún en el período que se popularizaron con rendimientos del 38% anual.

Los inversores que desean mantenerse dolarizados tienen un menú cada vez mayor de opciones. Los más conservadores tienen a disposición la emisión de Letras del Tesoro que se realiza aproximadamente cada dos semanas, que además se pueden suscribir en pesos al tipo de cambio mayorista del día anterior a la licitación. También pueden utilizar los nuevos fondos comunes de inversión en dólares. Ambas alternativas lucen más razonables que un bono corto como el AA17, ya que ninguna de aquellas operaciones tiene costos de entrada, mientras que al operar por bolsa hay que descontar la comisión del agente. Para opciones más agresivas los instrumentos más largos como el BPLD de la Provincia de Buenos Aires son una apuesta audaz a la compresión de rendimientos a medida que baje la inflación, mientras que para posiciones más líquidas el DICA y el PARY especialmente lucen como los más atractivos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 17.7.2016

 

2.812 comentarios

  1. Ruben

    Buen dia,.! Sana toma en los principales mercados , el merval no sera la excepcion y acompañara.
    Hay q monitorear q hace Come.

  2. martincho

    Tenias razón esta muy cara, se esta haciendo percha, se adelanto mucho su cotización a la realidad de la empresa, el mercado ya dio su veredicto y no paga en torno a los 3 se va directo a formar un nuevo techo en su ultimo piso de 2,55. Es mas ya se corrió el rumor que trae perdidas aunque algo mas moderadas que el último balance y mientras otros dicen que una leve ganancia por el maquillaje contable.

  3. agromaf

    Vieron que yo tenia info priviligiada no era chamuyo lo que dije el sábado de CRESUD, que le quedaban pocas ordenes de 50 mil a la empresa donde trabajo, dicho y echo se termino la pared, no hay mas venta, explota si o si. Agarrense de lo que tengan a mano.

  4. Sr. Tavares. Es muy impresionante la suba de Dycasa. Entiendo que puede beneficiarse con la obra publica, pero le estan por rescindir por incumplimientos en el contrato la concesion de la Ruta 2 donde participa con el % 25. Entiendo que es un activo muy importante. Por lo que leí, la decision ya esta tomada. La Provincia de Buenos Aires va a asumir el control. Que impacto podria tener en la cotizacion?

  5. ELIO

    Viva el panel general!!! Algunos deberían empezar a tomar nota. Sin ofender a nadie simplemente para optimizar la cartera.

  6. No hay buenos o malos paneles, no hay únicas preferencias ni estrategias. Cada cual debe ser consecuente con su lectura y su comprensión del mkdo. Para ganar plata aquí hay que saber, ganar primero experiencia y no correr detrás de la pelota. Saludos

  7. Tan beneficiadas van a resultar Carboclor o Petrolera del Cono Sur en el contexto actual?? Mas alla de una actualizacion de la cotizacion. Es justificable las subas que estan teniendo estas empresas?? Petrolera del Cono sur esta refundida como el pais controlante (Venezuela) y no produce hidrocarburos, ni siquiera los refina!!

  8. ELIO

    ELIO
    17 julio, 2016 at 21:27 – Reply
    Gracias Cristaldo, nadie se animó a decir que es un disparate PSUR a $6 ja ja ja

  9. Felipito_tacatun

    ¿Alguien me puede explicar lo que está pasando? ¿Qué opinan los expertos? ¿Hay que dejar correr o se viene el tiempo de digestión? Da la impresión de que hoy el mercado se traga todo lo que uno tira… Yo, por las dudas, acabo de dar el paso al costado en AGRO ($17) y FERRUM ($11,25).

    • Agro, es un pedazo de accion. Tiene una muy importante tajada del mercado de sembradoras (sino es la principal le pega en el palo) y productos de alta calidad. Parece que pasa caminando los $ 20 en un par de meses. Es justificable la subida que viene teniendo. La recomendo el Sr. Tavares. Lo de Petrolera del Cono Sur no lo entiendo. Que hay detras de esa empresa???

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  11. Tavares
    Author

    Las1976: Hay que esperar el próximo balance para sacar conclusiones. Dycasa sube por la obra pública y porque todo sube

    • jimmy.92

      Maestro porque nunca lo escucho hablar de INAG ? las ventas de la empresa son 6 veces superiores a lo que vale por bolsa, vende agroquímicos y este gobierno pro campo seguro la va a favorecer , es mala palabra esta acción en este foro ademas otorga dividendos solo en efectivo superiores al 5%, Por favor Hector puede dar su opinión o alguien que sepa mucho del papel la voy a valorar.
      Saludos

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