AHORA LA NOTA DE LA SEMANA VA LOS VIERNES, PARA ANALIZAR EL FIN DE SEMANA.

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LAS PETROLERAS VUELVEN  ESTAR  ”A TIRO”

Tal como se  informó, después de 33 años discontinuamos nuestra relación profesional con el Diario Clarín a quien expresamos nuestro agradecimiento por la libertad intelectual que nos brindó. Ello no significa que interrumpamos nuestra relación con nuestros lectores. A partir de ahora, todos  los viernes incorporaremos el resumen semanal similar al efectuado los domingos en el suplemento económico de Clarín. Asimismo, a efectos de tener una más fluida relación con nuestros lectores, los invitamos en una especie de “ping-pong”, a enviarnos sus opiniones y comentarios sobre la realidad bursátil y nuestra visión siempre en un marco de prudencia, formalidad y respeto.

La intención del Gobierno de culminar un 2014 en un clima de tranquilidad social y económico lo lleva a extremar medidas que pueden ser efectivas en el corto plazo pero sin sustento en el  tiempo. De allí que los analistas presumen un  mercado errático hasta la gran definición respecto a la relación con los “holdouts”.  Estas medidas tomadas irracionalmente para la coyuntura, afectan al mercado que prefiere “desensillar hasta que aclare” pero ofrece oportunidades que deben ser aprovechadas. Entre las últimas decisiones, la de no considerar impositivamente la pérdida que produce la operación denominada “contado con liqui” ofrece dos comentarios. Parece razonable si es producto de una “picardía legal” comprando con pesos títulos en el mercado y transformarlos a dólares de $12 para mantenerlos en cartera y valuarlos a fin de Ejercicio a $8.50. Ello produciría ficticiamente una perdida de $3,50. Pero no seria correcto para un importador que hace la misma operación para pagar a su proveedor porque el Gobierno no le libera dólares para pagar su deuda. El importador que adeudaba dólares a $8,50 es inducido por el Gobierno a operar en ese mercado  y pierden efectivamente $3,50 por dólar.

Los precios actuales de las acciones son una invitación de compras selectivas para inversores tradicionales. ¿Cómo puede justificarse la caída de ALUAR cuando en su 1º Trimestre ganó 429,2 mill (101 mill en 2013) con Capital de 2500 millones y resultados no asignados por $1.112,2 millones? Una acción que quiere y necesita rehabilitarse es GAROVAGLIO con antecedentes “pesados”. Es que ahora la influencia de antiguos mayoritarios es menor y su gestión es más profesional. En su ultimo Ejercicio (30.6.14) ganó 29 millones con Capital de 20,5 millones, aprobándose un dividendo de 22% en efectivo ( pagadero en 2 cuotas) y 46% en acciones. En su 1º Trimestre la utilidad fue de 1,5 millones. La observación atenta de los mercados descifra mensajes. ¿Que interés especial existe en CARBOCLOR? En su 3º Trimestre “perdió” 36,2 millones con Capital de 141 millones, reiterando ejercicios negativos. Siempre se sostuvo que su accionista mayoritario ANCSOL quería desprenderse de esta Sociedad, EX – ASTRA y SOL PETROLEO, con negociaciones pero sin acuerdos. Lo cierto es que a $2,40 por acción existen firmes compradores.

En otro orden, los papeles petroleros bajaron más de la cuenta y quedaron muy “a tiro”. Tanto en Petrobras Brasil como YPF existe la sensación que se arriesga poco. La benjamín Petrolera Pampa también es alternativa teniendo en cuenta su último trimestral, aunque en este caso hay que señalar que la ganancia es financiera. Sería bueno que sus autoridades revean el pago a directores a través de nuevas acciones, incrementando permanentemente el capital. Al minoritario hay que cuidarlo

Héctor Tavares

 

4.598 comentarios

  1. edgardo

    hola Hector hace poco que te sigo y empece a invertir en la bolsa compre algo de aluar y algo de ledesma quiero comprar algo mas sin problemas de aguantar 1 año o mas que me recomendas desde ya gracias

  2. lemagiscien

    Atento a los comentarios de Tavares, que se han incorporado, a través de los años, como compañeros infaltables del fin de semana, celebro su continuación por esta página.

  3. Fede

    ANTE TODO FELICITACIONES POR SEGUIR… despues agregaria que el P.Earning de PBR/APBR quedo en 8 años y el de YPF en 12 años, con lo cual el sobrecastigo que recibio PBR, deberia llevarla a 16,35 usd, y $ 98/$100 actuales a 12,10 del CCL, para compensarla con el mismo Price de su par Argentina.

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