AHORA, EL TURNO DEL DÓLAR

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El Banco Central continuó su política de reducción de tasas de interés tras acercarse el calendario al nunca tan esperado segundo semestre. Inicialmente los bonos en pesos fueron los más beneficiados al trasladarse la inversión en Lebacs hacia otros instrumentos. La demanda de estos títulos continuó firme, pero también los inversores comenzaron a dolarizar carteras con más fuerza, haciendo salir de su letargo a la divisa norteamericana que volvió a instalarse cómodamente por encima de los $ 14 en el mercado mayorista de cambios. Naturalmente, la suba del dólar también alimentó la demanda de instrumentos en la misma moneda (tanto los pagaderos en dólares como los “dólar-linked”) y también aumentó el costo de cobertura de contratos a futuro de corto plazo.

De momento las inversiones en pesos continúan atractivas, dado que la autoridad monetaria continuará reduciendo el nivel de tasas de interés. Los cortes de tasa por cada plazo continúan siendo decrecientes, es decir, que las Lebacs más cortas siguen rindiendo más (en términos anualizados) que las más largas. Cuando la curva se estabilice o tenga una forma “normal” (creciente) implicará que el Central está cómodo con el nivel general de tasas y buscará incentivar los plazos más largos en vez de concentrar toda la demanda en las letras de 35 días.

Para el inversor minorista la manera más sencilla de participar de estas inversiones es a través de los fondos comunes de inversión de renta fija en pesos que ofrecen casi todos los bancos comerciales. Sin embargo, es probable que el Central llegue al nivel deseado de tasas en no más de 3 o 4 semanas más, con lo cual el beneficio de estos instrumentos está acotado en el tiempo. En el mercado bursátil aún se pueden adquirir instrumentos largos atados al índice CER como buenas alternativas de inversión, o bien el tramo medio de la curva en pesos (PR13) como algo más conservador.

Por el lado de los bonos en dólares el inversor tiene que tomar la decisión de posicionarse concentrándose en la moneda o asumir un mayor riesgo para tener un retorno mayor vinculado al interés. En el primer caso la mejor alternativa son títulos cortos y una alternativa atractiva son las licitaciones de Letras que realiza el Tesoro Nacional. En la última licitación se ofreció una letra (similar a un bono) a 240 días con un interés implícito del 4% anual. Además se permite la suscripción en pesos al tipo de cambio mayorista, con lo cual se paga un precio levemente menor que si se compraran directamente los dólares para suscribir. En el segundo caso, los bonos más largos del Tesoro Nacional como el PARY ofrecen retornos del 7% anual, que es levemente superior al ofrecido por los Discounts, que son algo más cortos. Con estos títulos la apuesta no es solamente obtener un mayor rendimiento anual por la tasa sino también una ganancia de capital producto de la reducción de la misma a futuro. A medida que las cuentas públicas se estabilicen y Argentina sea más y mejor visto por los mercados externos, la demanda de títulos llevará los rendimientos más cerca del 6% anual que del actual 7%. Los bonos como el PARY o el DICY, por su legislación aplicable y volumen, serán los primeros en reaccionar.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 26.6.2016

3.634 comentarios

  1. Rodolfo

    No soy un entendido en bonos pero según la matemática a mi entender por lejos el AY24 tiene muy buen rendimiento dado que reinvirtiendo los intereses del 8,75% anual en dólares, para el 2024 habré duplicado el capital invertido y en dólares.

  2. Rodolfo

    Para vos ALB es como un plazo fijo:
    dólar interes total año
    100 1,0875 108,75 1 2016
    108,75 1,0875 118,265625 2 2017
    118,265625 1,0875 128,6138672 3 2018
    128,6138672 1,0875 139,8675806 4 2019
    139,8675806 1,0875 152,1059939 5 2020
    152,1059939 1,0875 165,4152683 6 2021
    165,4152683 1,0875 179,8891043 7 2022
    179,8891043 1,0875 195,6294009 8 2023
    195,6294009 1,0875 212,7469735 9 2024

  3. Rodolfo

    Va de nuevo pones 100 nominales en 2016 y en el 2024 cuando vence el bono tenes 212,75
    dólar interes total año
    100 1,0875 108,75 1 2016
    108,75 1,0875 118,27 2 2017
    118,27 1,0875 128,61 3 2018
    128,61 1,0875 139,87 4 2019
    139,87 1,0875 152,11 5 2020
    152,11 1,0875 165,42 6 2021
    165,42 1,0875 179,89 7 2022
    179,89 1,0875 195,63 8 2023
    195,63 1,0875 212,75 9 2024

  4. Histórico

    En España, con lo que pasó con el Brexit se cagaron todos los votantes. Ganó la clase política a pesar de su enorme desprestigio.
    Supongo que con el resto de los países de UE va a pasar lo mismo.
    Insisto: esto fue un suicidio de los ingleses que se van a quedar cada vez más aislados en sus islas. A futuro se va a fortalecer la UE que tendrá que hacer grandes correcciones y eliminar la burocracia de Bruselas.
    Las acciones son oportunidad de compra.

  5. Histórico

    Si realmente la política monetaria del BCRA con tasas súper altas tenía que ver con el control de la inflación debería bajar bruscamente las tasas ya que la inflación proyectada, según el propio gobierno, está en 1,5/2% mensual.
    Además es una gran oportunidad para que se siga corrigiendo, no traumáticamente, el gran atraso del tipo de cambio que va a permitir una mayor competitividad al país.

  6. Javier Aguirre

    De acuerdo con Historico, golpe tambien a Marine Le Pen (no festejo el triunfo de Francia 98 porque habia negros en el plantel), Donald Trump, y ahora el xenofobico Nigel Farage , impulsor del referendum , mentiroso patologico(cualquier idem con Argentina es pura coincidencia), dice que se equivoco, los 350 millones de libras que irian a ir a salud y eduacion no van ……se equivoco.

    Ojo con las bolsas el Lunes. Para mi verde .Nos vemos Javier

  7. jose

    hay que tener en cuenta dos cosas:

    1)Reinvertir a la misma tasa es casi imposible porque el bono va cambiando el rendimiento.

    2) Por otro lado el dolar se deprecia un 3% anual es decir del 2016 al 2024 lo que cobres va a ser un 26% menos en terminos reales.

    Rodolfo me parece que estas tirando cualquiera

  8. Histórico

    Sánchez era en España el candidato antisistema. De estar primero en las encuestas, salió tercero en las elecciones.
    Aunque muy desprestigiado todo el sistema político igual ganó por temor a lo que pasó con el Brexit.
    Creo que es positivo para llevar tranquilidad a los mercados.

  9. Rodolfo

    José con los dólares que cobrás cada 6 meses volvés a comprar el mismo bono es decir reinvertís al 8,75% anual. En cuanto a la depreciación es peor quedarse en pesos. No conozco una moneda (con bajo spread) que se deprecie menos que el dólar. El euro tiene un alto spread entiendo por spread la diferencia entre compra y venta.

    • Juan

      Rodolfo, está mal la cuenta que haces
      Te rendiria 8,75% si la lámina de 100 la pagar a la par, es decir, u$100
      Si la lámina de 100 la pagas sobre la par, es decir vale más de u$100 como pasa ahora, entonces el rendimiento es menor.
      Si la lámina de 100 la pagas bajo la par, es decir vale menos de u$100 como fue en la época Kris, entonces el rendimiento es mayor al 8,75%

      Saludos

    • Mariano

      Al momento de comprar (se fija la tasa), si compras en momentos diferentes, a precios diferentes, no va a ser a la misma tasa.

  10. Mañana puede haber en principio rebote, pero yo no estaría tan confiado. No es predecible aun el coletazo que puede generar el resultado en GB. La globalización lleva irremediablemente a que un pedo que se tiren en Australia genere olor fétido en Argentina. A corto plazo pienso que habrá turbulencias y además la oportunidad que dan los mercados agitados (y e nuestro lo agitan si quieren con una cucharita de café), permite entrar barato a los capitales que puedan ver una proyección interesante futura..Saludos

  11. La inmigracion les causa mucho gastos a los paises(alimentacion, salud, educacion y seguridad) ese es el fin ultimo de los paises ricos europeos, que quieren rajar de la CEE, para q nadie les marque la cancha. Solamente les conviene quedarse a los paises, de la mitad de tabla para abajo( en cuanto a riquezas) Por eso quieren rajar Italia, Francia, Holanda, Escocia, entre otros.

  12. Rodolfo

    Muchas gracias Juan por tu aclaración. Es verdad lo que expresás respecto de la paridad y coincido que le baja el rendimiento al bono analizado en pesos. Hablando de dólares te da el 8,75 % anual que no es poca cosa. Para un inversor-ahorrista con un mediano capital como soy, me resulta atractivo y lo quise compartir con el foro.

  13. Histórico

    Barandista, perdón pero pensé que te referías a Iglesias.
    Sánchez es del PSOE y salió segundo en las elecciones.

  14. Accionista

    Buenas..
    Quien penso que el viernes se acababa el problema.. wrong..
    http://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2016/06/27/efecto-brexit-bancos-britanicos-suspendieron-temporalmente-la-venta-de-acciones-tras-un-fuerte-desplome/
    El panel terminara en rojo debido a una caida del petroleo y el malhumor en EU contagiandose por doquier..
    No sera un dia divertido para quien esta comprado como mencione el viernes las ofertas estaran para quienes dispongan de liquidez.. cada uno sabe que hace con sus acciones y espero que no se vean asustados malvendiendo si es que apostaron a una de las fuertes del lider.. quien aposto al resto y juega en el casino.. como dijo Tavares el viernes..”ceeeeeeerooooooooooo”. Slds!
    PS: El dolar sigue subiendo y mas alla de que algunas acciones se ven claramente beneficiadas.. si mañana no bajan las tasas de las lebacs el merval se va a resentir.

  15. Daniel

    Buenas tardes a todos,

    Alguien podria comentarme como será la distribucion de dividendos en acciones en BOLDT?

    Entre hace un tiempo y recien ahora parece estar despertando.. cualquier informacion será agradecida de antemano.

    SDs

  16. Guillermo Eduardo

    Hola Daniel ,hay un aumento de Capital de $ 150 millones con un capital social de $ 450 millones, el porcentaje del mismo es de % 33,33 o sea 0,33 por acciòn a partir del 5 de julio , tenès 72 hs antes( si no me equivoco son hàbiles ) para poder entrar y gozar de los dividendos que son en acciones,-
    Espero te sea ùtil la informacion.-
    Abrazo
    Guillermo Eduardo

  17. porfiado

    Guillermo/Daniel: no se cuándo se anunció esta distribución de dividendos de Boldt, pero el aumento de hoy del 6.5% podría deberse a eso y si es así ya no tiene sentido entrar solo para beneficiarse del cobro de divivendos porque está descontado en el precio…. yo también tengo ese papel y estaba muerto hasta ahora

  18. Daniel

    Porfiado:

    No estoy tan seguro que en el precio este descontado el dividendo en acciones, creo q mañana y pasado habrá muchos queriendo meterse… Este papel ha tocado máximos de 5,50 si mal no recuerdo…

    Sds

  19. Principiante

    Yo creo que es por eso (más acciones en circulación y el tema psíquico de precios más bajos, más atractivos) y porque al parecer recién ahora los inversores están empezando a leer bien el último balance presentado. Boldt no es sólo juego (un rubro que parece haber caído en desgracia con el nuevo gobierno), es mucho más que eso.

  20. Mat

    Boldt tiene el negocio de las fotomultas y control de velocidad en muchos distritos. Es como dice Principiante, más que casinos solamente.

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