AHORA AL DOLAR SE LO MIRA CON CARIÑO

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Otra semana de furioso optimismo impulsó los mercados financieros y el de bonos en particular. Las expectativas de cambios que llevaría adelante la nueva administración central a partir de diciembre alentó la demanda de bonos largos ajustables por CER, que subieron cerca de un 12% en febrero y más de 20% en lo que va de marzo. Si bien durante enero ya se recomendaba como opción de diversificación, la quietud del dólar alimentó una rápida demanda que sorprendió a los inversores, en especial a los siempre reticentes a invertir en bonos en pesos. Por el lado de los “dólar-link”, el freno de la devaluación del cambio oficial le quitó atractivo a bonos que ya tienen rendimientos negativos.

De todas maneras, la ya “anticipada” suba obviamente le resta potencial alcista ante una eventual normalización de las estadísticas del INDEC para el próximo gobierno. Por eso los operadores del mercado volvieron a mirar con mayor simpatía los bonos en dólares, a pesar de la quietud de la divisa norteamericana, aunque esta vez con el aliciente de la política monetaria del Banco Central y el Tesoro. Durante el 2014 la emisión para financiar el déficit fiscal era reabsorbida por el Banco Central mediante la emisión de Letras (bonos). El fortísimo incremento del déficit superó todo esfuerzo de esterilización y la base monetaria registró un pico de crecimiento durante marzo, algo que no pasó desapercibido. Simultáneamente, el stock de deuda emitida por el Banco Central ya comienza a generar dudas en los bancos comerciales, que podrían dejar de suscribir a las letras de la autoridad monetaria por temor a que caigan de precio en caso de una corrida contra el dólar.

Durante las últimas semanas el dólar “contado con liquidación” y el “blue” tuvieron una suba leve ocultada por la revalorización general de acciones y bonos. El hecho toma mayor relevancia si se tiene en cuenta que por norma general dicha revalorización también debería alcanzar a la moneda local, que tuvo un desempeño contrario. Si bien la confianza, la merma en la inflación y la emisión de Letras (con sus altas tasas de interés) desalientan una suba del tipo de cambio, los inversores temen que los desequilibrios en las cuentas públicas empujen la cotización de la divisa.

Por otro lado, los bonos largos en dólares (DICA y PARA) mantienen buenas perspectivas de suba y han sido demandados también por la ola de optimismo, aunque en menor medida que los ajustables por CER. La apuesta estriba en suponer que el nuevo gobierno no tardará en tener tasas razonables de deuda, que valorizaría especialmente los bonos largos. Para los inversores más conservadores, los títulos cortos en dólares ofrecen rendimientos del 8,2% anual, una tasa nada despreciable. Los títulos cortos “capturan” más rápidamente las variaciones del tipo de cambio, mientras que los bonos largos se ven tanto o más afectados por los movimientos en el rendimiento de los títulos.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 22.3.2015

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  199. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  274. Currently it seems like Movable Type is the top blogging platform out there right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you are using on your blog?|

  275. Hey there this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!|

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  320. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  323. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is needed to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

  324. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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  327. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  328. Please let me know if you’re looking for a writer for your site. You have some really great posts and I think I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d love to write some articles for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an email if interested. Kudos!

  329. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

  330. Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your article seem to be running off the screen in Ie. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Cheers

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  333. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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  335. Hmm it seems like your website ate my first comment (it was extremely long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I too am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any points for beginner blog writers? I’d really appreciate it.

  336. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the structure of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  337. Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a thirty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  338. Hey there! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it very difficult to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about making my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Thanks

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  350. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

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