AFLOJAN LAS TASAS

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Ya se había visto que la autoridad monetaria no estaba cómoda con un dólar de $ 15,50 y que incluso llegó hasta $ 16. Al menos por el momento. El Banco Central salió con una agresiva suba de tasas de licitación de Lebacs para golpear el mercado de dinero de corto plazo y forzar a los bancos a vender las divisas que habían comprado, ya que los pesos de cortísimo plazo les resultaban muy caros (tasas superiores al 40% anual). De fondo también están los contratos de futuros abiertos durante la gestión de Alejandro Vanoli: la mayoría de las posiciones abiertas del BCRA vence en marzo y abril. Pero la lucha no es gratuita, ya que la munición de la tasa de interés afecta la capacidad de prestar de los bancos a la industria, y un alza sostenida en el tiempo perjudicaría la delicada situación del crecimiento económico.

Durante la semana el Central volvió a absorber pesos manteniendo las tasas de corto plazo y aumentando levemente las de plazos más largos. Sin embargo el mercado se estabilizó en estos niveles y los bancos contaron con más efectivo para operar. Ello hizo que el dólar detuviera su caída y a nivel mayorista se ubicara alrededor de los $ 14,65. Las tasas de cortísimo plazo descendieron a niveles del 34%, y ya se espera que en la próxima licitación de Letras se emitan a tasas menores. Aún se desconoce la estrategia del Banco Central, pero los operadores del mercado entienden que la entidad que dirige Federico Sturzenegger tiene más temprano que tarde que estabilizar la curva de tasas de Lebacs y comenzar a estirar los plazos para no tener que afrontar cada semana vencimientos tan caudalosos.

El parate de la caída del dólar trajo estabilidad para los instrumentos “dólar-linked”, al tiempo que los grandes inversores dejan de salir de los instrumentos de cobertura. Los inversores pueden aprovechar en este momento los altos rendimientos que ofrecen los títulos que pagan en pesos al cambio oficial. El bono de Neuquén NDG21 llegó a conseguirse a tasas del 13% en dólares, mientras que el PUO19 de Chubut y los mendocinos PMO18 y PMD18 se obtenían a alrededor del 12,2% anual. Los bonos largos de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires también mostraron rendimientos atractivos superiores al 10% (habitualmente ofrecen menores tasas por considerarse un emisor más solvente).

Aquellos inversores algo más conservadores aún pueden aprovechar el momento para devengar intereses en pesos a tasas muy superiores a la inflación esperada. Una inversión que no es para descartar es el plazo fijo a plazos relativamente largos. Al pequeño inversor el banco le paga más por plazos fijos más largos, mientras que en el mercado mayorista la relación actual es inversa y algunos bancos directamente no operan en plazos largos. Tasas nominales anuales (TNA) del 30% en 60 días, 31% en 90 o 32% en 180 realmente son para considerar, y representan rendimientos efectivos del 34%, 34,8% y 34,6% respectivamente. En caso de que el banco ofrezca esos niveles de tasa puede ser una alternativa interesante para diversificar riesgo y “planchar” un nivel de tasa alto, siendo que es muy factible que el nivel general baje para el segundo semestre.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 20.3.2016

8.296 comentarios

  1. Joset

    Maestro: prefiero q ferrum no de dividendos y q gane muchisimo x resultados financieros como el último trimestre. La administran mejor q nosotros

  2. Chelito

    Héctor: hay quienes están analizando el balance de COME y dicen que es malo que opinión tenés acerca del tema, mantenemos la posición? solo opero con papeles con un horizonte de 6 meses. Gracias desde ya.

  3. Ruben

    Muchachos,…este papel hace mas de 1 año que lateraliza,…esta manejado y recontra controlado por una gran mafia ,….que la van a soltar y si ,…….algun dia seguro,….!!! yo veo que esto no es nada mas y nada menos que pura timba,…en Come no ha cambiado nada,…no es una empresa seria y confiable,…en otro foro estan a las puteadas hace rato y muy disconformes,….este papel solo sirve para los lotes y los lanzados,…como inversion en acciones una desepcion,…en el merval lider,…hay empresas muy serias para los que compran acciones y pueden dormir mas tranquilo.
    Esta accion timba,…yo no pongo un sope , es un casino,….compro cualquier otra accion de las lideres o en su defecto hay muy buenas en el general,…ya recomendadas aca en este foro ,…caso CTIO,,Esme, JMIN,..etc
    Saludos y buenas inversiones.

  4. Javier Aguirre

    Es cierto es increible la energia y el tiempo gastsdo en Come,y por ende dinero msl gastado y no teniendo en cuenta el costo de oportunidad ,sinceramente no se adonde quieren llegar,ya dio su conclucion el Sr Tavares ,y en mi humilde opinion asi es como tambien opinan mas o menos lo mismo Burzaco,Marril y fundamentalmente Sr Tavares

    • Mat

      Yo me fijaría si tiene que vender sus casinos en la Patagonia como trascendió. Quién los compraría, quién tiene la capacidad económica y se dedica al rubro. No es muy difícil: BOLDT

  5. Ruben

    Se viene la gran salida de Pampa,….atentos,…que va a salir y muy fuerte ,…para mi es la segunda mirgor por la sube que se trae,….!!!!! coincide SR tavares

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  197. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility issues? A couple of my blog readers have complained about my website not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any solutions to help fix this issue?

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  199. Hello there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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  201. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my agreement. Do you know any techniques to help reduce content from being ripped off? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  203. Hi would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m having a tough time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!

  204. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thanks a lot

  205. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said «You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.» She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  213. I’m curious to find out what blog platform you are utilizing? I’m having some minor security issues with my latest blog and I would like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any recommendations?

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