¿ADIOS A LOS LEBAC?

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Los martes, el Banco Central habitualmente realiza la licitación de las Lebac o Letras del Banco Central, que desde la devaluación de enero 2014 pasaron a ser el principal instrumento para los inversores institucionales. En ese marco, el Gobierno había emitido bonos que ajustaran por un promedio de la tasa de licitación de Lebac. Nacieron entonces los denominados “Bonac” cuyos códigos en bolsa son: A2M6, A2S6, AY16 y AL16. Los dos primeros pagan intereses de acuerdo al promedio de los de 90 días, mientras que los dos últimos por el de 262 días.

Desde el último martes de diciembre, el Central ha dejado de licitar letras internas, ya que desde entonces las mismas pueden ser adquiridas por tenedores extranjeros. Esta situación está contemplada en las condiciones de emisión de los Bonac que establecen que si el promedio no se pudiera calcular por no existir licitaciones de Letras Internas, los títulos pasarían a pagar una tasa de interés Badlar (la misma que el resto de los bonos en pesos como el AS16, AM17, AO17, AMX9 y PR15), más un margen adicional.

En el mercado estos títulos rápidamente pasaron a ser considerados bonos Badlar, aunque todavía no hay comunicados oficiales que lo aseguren. Sin embargo, ahora surgen nuevas dudas de si seguirán tomando la licitación de Lebac, en especial con los título AY16 y AL16. Estos dos serían los más afectados de continuar tomándose como Bonac y por ello cotizan con un descuento interesante. Pasar a tomar estos bonos como títulos que pagan interés Badlar implicaría un rendimiento del 34% o 35% y con cobertura respecto de la tasa de interés. Ello quiere decir que si las tasas de interés aumentan, también aumentará el rendimiento de los títulos y viceversa.

Se trata de dos bonos cortos en pesos con un buen rendimiento para el inversor minorista, con el único riesgo de que el Tesoro decida seguir tomando el promedio de las licitaciones actuales de Letras para pagar los intereses. Se trata de un evento poco probable, porque las condiciones de emisión de los títulos hablan expresamente de Letras Internas, instrumentos que el Central ha dejado de emitir. Los grandes inversores ya los toman como bonos que paguen tasa Badlar, pero aún no están dispuestos a correr el riesgo sin un comunicado oficial. De confirmarse que se trata de bonos que pagan interés Badlar, estos dos títulos serían inversiones más rentables que las Letras del Banco Central y son de más fácil acceso para los bonistas más pequeños.

Más allá de estos instrumentos, las tasas de interés en pesos de los bonos bursátiles no lucen lo suficientemente atractivas para el inversor minorista. Para obtener mejores resultados, siguen estando disponibles los títulos provinciales dólar-link  que se pueden llegar a obtener con rendimientos anuales del 10% en dólares como el NDG21 de la provincia de Neuquén, o bien algo superiores como el PMO18 y PMD18 de Mendoza o el PUO19 de Chubut. Sin embargo, éstas son provincias con dificultades fiscales algo más importantes que las neuquinas.

Eduardo Cardenal, Clarín, IECO, 17.1.2016

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