¿ A NADIE LE IMPORTA EL “EFECTO POBREZA”?

 

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Desde que asumió el presidente Macri fueron contados los días positivos en el mercado accionario. Diversos fueron los motivos que determinaron la baja aunque con el diario del Lunes todos somos sabios. Los factores pueden resumirse en los siguientes: “comprar con el rumor y vender con la noticia”; “tipo de cambio insuficiente”; lisa y llana toma de ganancias; exceso de caucionados; mayor liberalidad cambiaria para sacar dólares del país; fuerte caída de los mercados internacionales, de los “commodities” y del petróleo en particular, etc, etc.

Pero lo más preocupante es que el tema no le interese al equipo económico. Que piense como una vez comentó el ex presidente Alfonsín: “la Bolsa es una timba”.

Lo que es claro que de un mes a esta parte hay un fuerte “efecto pobreza” y eso significa mayor recesión, menores ventas de autos, de propiedades, etc. Que se puede hacer?. Lo primero es preocuparse…

 

3.985 comentarios

    • Ariel

      Hay pros y contras , si seguía ella , con la plata que ganabas te ibas a comprar el autito que te gusta y cuestión de tiempo para que te vuelen la cabeza para robartelo

      • Ariel

        No estaba hablando de la bolsa , estaba hablando de que te sirve la ganancia si en un país inseguro no la podés disfrutar. Pero bueno parece que vos sabes un montón , sabes como funciona? el que tiene el dato se llena de guita

        • Antonio

          Era para Joset, es una locura comenzar a leer gente que pone cosas como “con cristina la bolsa subia..” “llegamos a maximos historicos..” u otros que ponen “macri destruyo la bolsa..” etc etc.
          Es muy simple, los mercados son globales y tienen ciclos.

          • Ariel

            Te pido disculpas , ayer no era mi día . Uno cuando no le salen las cosas se pone agresivo , disculpame

    • Adolf

      Si se confundieron mal!!!! es que la gilada se pensaba que el verde se iba a 20 JAJAJAJAJAJA…. y lo descontaron, como se iba a volar si en este país levantas un colchón y encontras un cajon de lechuga?? Ahora a bancarse la pelusa y a largar verdes a menor precio que el esperado.

  1. Mario

    Estimado, Hector, tengo claro que no tiene la bola de cristal pero si mucha experiencia… Cuando pararán estos días en que nuestras comitentes queden en rojo furioso? El tema holdouts implicaría una mejor inmediata?
    Entiendo que es momento de aguantar, pero, cada día creo que se nos hace más dificil.

  2. Ariel

    Mientras huelan sangre la van a seguir llevando ,los que ganan son los mismos de siempre y cuando se den vuelta y vayan ganando un 100% en poco tiempo , los que nos quedamos comprados apenas si tenemos suerte de recuperar lo perdido y agarrar las últimas migajas.La hicieron re bien , nos endulzaron a unos cuantos .Al menos yo , entré como un caballo , esto no es para los perejiles

  3. Mat

    Hola Héctor, le pregunto, como la ve a Boldt? Hace no mucho consideró la suba porque venía muy parada en Bolsa, no cree que pueda haber algo más? Algún cambio de manos de Trilenium que beneficiaría a la empresa, con la salida de SCP? Yo compré algo esperando los famosos dividendos. Saludos.

  4. Jose Lobo

    Coincido don Hector, la verdad que lamento el arranque de este gobierno, tenia otras espectativas y el error va a terminar costando plata.
    Veo que excepto las exportadoras cuando muestren los balances de estos meses va a recular feo.
    En algunos papeles el salto de 300 y 400 % era excesivo.
    Como ve a Teco2 . Jmin me parece q esta nuevamente en precio entrable no?

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  5. Mar

    Habia 2 pistas viejas e historicas para salir
    La de los 900 dolares . y la vender con la noticia.Yo no estaba caucionado. Por eso estaba tranquilo y no sali. Felicito al q salio

  6. lemagiscien

    Yo tambien esperaba unos dias festivos post asuncion y un enero como habitualmente venia ocurriendo con alzas de ocasion los primeros diez días. Nos pasaron la guadaña a una gran parte de los inversores. La macana es que la pérdida camina más rápido que las ganancias. Lo mejor es esperar, tranqui, con paciencia como dice Héctor, sentados en uno a algunos papeles o si se decidió estar líquido, saber reconocer las oportunidades cuando aparezcan. La ola petrolera viene siendo muy grossa y merece su respeto, sacude al mundo y a nosotros, a los papeles que tienen que ver y a los que no tienen que ver.
    Por otra parte, en casa, el mkdo ilusionó un dólar que no es y se puso fastidioso. Hay incertidumbre y mucha, Curiosamente el mkdo era fiesta con la larga y creciente expectativa de la ida de Cristina y es velorio con la confirmación de la asuncion del menos pensado.

    • Nacholdo

      Si yo también pero luego de las elecciones vi que el merval corto el MACD ahi recode la frase “vender con la noticia” y raje. En este caso funcionó!

  7. el contra

    hace unas semanas que despacito me estoy llevando APBR… desde luego que no espero ningún rebote de corto plazo es mas quisiera comprar en algun momento por debajo de los $10 que corrraaaaaaa sangre soy comprador ja, ja esto es bolsa gente . Un abrazo grande y paciencia la madre de todas la ciencias.

  8. lucas

    Si ganaba scioli, el merval estaria en 6000, no tiene nada que ver el gobierno con esta caida, todo tiene que ver con brasil, china , el contexto exterior esta muy mal, tampoco se podia tener un dollar a 18 con 30 de inflacion ,eso seria un desastre social, paciencia que si no estaria el equipo econ actual, el merval estaria destrosado. saludos

  9. lucas

    por ultimo, lo que si me parece exagerado es la caida de algunas acciones del sector agropecuario, caso sami, ledesma, que no habian subido ni un 20% de otras ligadas al sector agropecuario, caso agrometal, molinos, sin embargo ya esta en precios por abajo de principios de octubre cuando parecia que ganaba scioli, bueno ese es el caso de sami, ledesma estaba mucho mas barata en ese entonces.

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  10. sergio

    El que no tolera perder, que no juegue (o no invierta). La Bolsa es paciencia, mucha paciencia. Con Brasil pasó lo mismo que con Argentina, antes de las elecciones, cuando parecía que ganaba la oposición, la Bolsa subió muchisimo (aca encima ganó la oposición), cuando se supo el ganador, el bajon fue enorme. A eso se le sumaron todos los comentarios que hizo Héctor, que son totalmente ciertos. A los que entraron, que no vendan y no lean las noticias. A los que están afuera, el piso de esta caída está cerca, y en algún momento se va a dar vuelta. La Bolsa es revancha (como en la vida), y siempre los precios vuelven a las medias históricas.

  11. Fabricio

    Perdon pero no tiene nada que ver el gobierno ni nada de eso… después de las elecciones era obvia la toma de ganancias – hubo papeles que subieron más de 100% y los árboles no crecen hasta el cielo – y por el otro lado deberían de mirar qué pasó en el resto del mundo y ahí van a encontrar la respuesta.
    Hay una gran correlación por ejemplo entre Merval y S&P.

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